tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg May 19, 2015 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
market day. housing rebound. building permit. it could signal a vigorous selling season. question economist says europe -- a greekared default would have serious ramifications we will hear an exclusive interview. : we will look at the world's top college endowment and you will never guess which one lead the pack in 2014. ♪ olivia: good morning. at where theook stocks are trading at the s&p 500 is down. the dow jones averages higher by 5.5 points.
market today.ed the walmart stock is down about 4% right now. olivia: the big story in europe, the ecb front loading speeding up sovereign debt. the euro, the biggest move into the -- two months. said thefficial central bank would buy more european debt sooner than expected. analysts say those should come down what has been a very volatile bond market. stocks higher. two -- two up by point 2%. the idea that the central bank will bring more stimulus sooner, good news for risk assets and equity traders. has been an 20%, it amazing story in european equities. pimm: long-term stocks with a euro-dollar hedge. a look at the top
headlines at this hour. we start, tumbling at the start of the year. aprilg starts soaring in to the highest level in more than seven years. the increases 20% over the -- the biggest in 24 years. mortgage rates are near record lows. americans are spending more on the current home. home depot posting profits that beat analyst estimates. the early arrival of warm weather encouraged americans to work on the into -- exteriors of their houses. this was home depot's biggest revenue generator. by theailers being hurt strength of the u.s. dollar. profit missed analyst estimates. part of it is the dollar that hurt overseas. the company is dealing with a broader shift. walmart is making big strides when it comes to e-commerce.
>> we are investing to win the future of retail and i am excited about the possibilities are we are making progress rolling out our global technology platform to make congress -- commerce easier for shoppers. walmart will spend a lot of money in the next couple of years and customers can pick up orders at their stores. pimm: for the first time since 1960, brady -- great britain's inflation rate has fallen below zero. in the last 12 months, british consumer prices have fallen .1%. so far below the 2% target, the bank of england is under a little pressure to raise its benchmark interest rates. the leaders of germany and france say it is time to pick up the pace on grace.
a meetup in berlin today. merkel says a deal on bail at money must be reached by the end of the month of may and they say faster talks are needed to end the four-month stair mate. last night, the greek finance minister said the two sides are almost there. close.ink we are very until the deal is done, no one ever knows when the deal will be done. >> could it be a matter of 24 hours? >> i would say it is a matter of about a week. creditors want to see concrete action including a pension overhaul. they say they will not release any more bailout money until then. with george lucas. fortunately, so our disney's shares. lucas has made a $2.2 billion the disney stock
he received in exchange for the rights to the star wars franchise. close toares are up 70% in the last two years. the first star wars sequel comes out in december. those are your top stories this morning. coming up on the bloomberg market day, how to make progress in a polarized washington, d.c. former white house chief of staff is our guest. olivia: are wall street ceo's is really the best date or are they just perceived to be? how they stack up against projections from other industries. those and more coming up. pimm: a proxy for future issued in a time since 2000 ap or the report on house sales it is a bit of a mixed picture. olivia: our next guest backed up the call by selling his own house, and became a homeowner again in 2012.
the chief investment officer of global credit at pimco joins us now from california. good morning and thank you for joining us. great numbers this morning on housing. it is fantastic and we are happy to see it. yesterday, homebuilder confidence fell. a report, wells fargo and sales of new homes falling to a four-month low. how strong is the housing market and why are you now so bullish? >> i think it is very strong. the facts are that over the last three years, housing starts have grown 12-15% here the overall economy has only grown at 4%. we have got record low inventories, at 14 year lows. we added 2.9 million jobs in the last year. you have got a million more job openings. importantly, the 25-34-year-old almost that has added
800,000 jobs, the strongest in 15 years. there is significant pent-up demand coming into the housing market. we are still bullish after having been for the last three years. if you could give us a little more detail about why you believe the housing market is strong. if you look at new construction plus spending on furnishings and furniture, that makes up about 5% of gdp today. back in 2000 is in 2000, it made up almost double that amount. 9% of gdp. how the housing market strong in comparison? cyclically correcting from a very depressed low base. because of that, you can get very strong growth rates, 12 or 15%. the fact is, if we go from 1.1 million housing starts to what we think will be 1.5 million housing starts three years from now, it is growing at a tent plus growth rate in an economy
that is only growing four or 5%. the fact is housing has been a strong contributor to the economy and will continue to be a strong contributor over the next two or three years. olivia: there are big real estate investors who says lower household ownership rates are the new normal and millenial's will never be able to afford buying a new house and they do not want to leave their parents basement, who knows. way, what is your take? >> we would be more optimistic. you look at the 18-34-year-old cohort, 31.5% of those groups are living with their parents. the typical rate is 27%. basically got an unemployment rate now which has been coming down 1% per year. it is now 5.4%. you have got for -- 4.7 million homeowners foreclosed on who lost their home after a seven-year cure time, those
homebuyers will come back into the market. there is a lot of pent-up demand and that is why this thing has legs in terms of its growth rate going forward. >> how can investors make money on the call? what should they be buying? >> we have been overweight nonagency mortgages. also sectors like building material -- building materials, homebuilders, banks, financials, which benefit from a refinance. mortgage insurance benefits on new purchases. basically, housing and housing related sectors should continue to outperform over the next several years simply because we have got significant growth off of this base even today. buys -- buying the housing credit or the stock on the equity? >> we like a lot of the equities and the bonds. a company basically produces
chips and we like that company a lot. fidelity national title and first america is the title insurance company. we like bonds and equity and we think there is significant growth ahead. 10% plus, in that company. companies like home improvement, that has a lot of upside. there are a lot of ways to play this and overall, you want to be overweight housing and housing , cyclicals, and nonagency mortgages to benefit from the trends. what about the call to go along entities such as freddie mae and any mac? why'd you like nonagency? quite simply because of the technicals in the marketplace. they are not issuing more of these bonds. from global bond markets that you use taking all of the risk-free assets out of the marketplace. a simple fact, the fed when it
was buying treasuries was buying 45% of all treasuries issued ecb basically through their qe program will be buying 65% of all the issuance coming in from the marketplace. it creates a need for income somewhere and what investors will be buying his nonagency mortgages. you are giving basically 5% in an asset with diminished supply, improving fundamental trend. that is why it is so convincing for non-agencies. pimm: thank you very much for joining us. olivia: live from the peterson foundation in d.c. speaking to betty liu coming up next. ♪
earnings-per-share forecast for a full year. take two interactive, the maker of the grand theft auto videogame, i knew game evolved helped boost its numbers, migrating more customers to its digital game. content up 56%. thank you julie in the newsroom. a look at the top stories crossing the terminal right now. elizabeth warren wants to change the trade bill to make sure banks do not get a free ride her choice to make sure the trade been can weaken the dodd frank financial regulation p other proposal says any trade deal that includes provisions on bank deal regulations would not be considered under fast-track authority. we will have an exclusive interview with senator warren at 2:30 eastern right here on bloomberg tv. uber is testing its highest fee yet for drivers. the car booking app is taking
30% of revenue from new drivers in san francisco and san diego. it is part of a new structure. uber drivers will pay a lower commission and once they book a certain number of rides each week. texas, that -- the governor signed a law that prohibits local governments from fracking,ack it -- and he says he wants to protect private robert he writes from heavy-handed regulation. those are your top stories this hour. some of the biggest names in economic and public policy are gathering at the peterson foundation fiscal summit this morning in washington dc and are looking at how to get things done in a divided washington. the former white house chief of staff is there who spent six years working for george w. bush and he is standing by with betty liu. i will pass it over to you.
betty: thank you. i'm standing here with andy, now the president of franklin pierce and university in new hampshire. he just started in january. a very interesting summit so far. . was just on the panel all three felt there was not enough urgency in washington on the fiscal situation. how do we get better? >> there was tremendous urgency but i am not sure the political community recognizes it because they do not want to. it but do not recognize it and that is a problem. we have got to call it to their attention. what a great service that has been done by the peterson foundation. the work that would normally be done in transition to a president, and they put forward five different plans, all of them designed by people with parochial interest.
can be reviewed by everybody running for president or no excuse for ignorance. if you're going to run for president, you have got to understand the real problems and a challenge of getting a good solution. there are good solutions offered and that is the value. great solutions to almost every politician in d.c. in principle agreed with major aspects of that plan. nobody was going to vote on it. president obama did not take it up and how does the next president take that up? >> the reality in washington dc, if the president does not lead, no one else will. the next president had better lead on this issue, because we cannot afford the consequence of no leadership one it comes to restoring america's fiscal sanity. that is what this town bashan has done here it betty: how would you do it? >> i would vote for the candidates who understand the of the challenge, and then some of
with a solution. the solutions are not hard to understand but they may be hard to realize. i do not want candidates running for president who lock themselves in. they have got to make promises to get our economic policy work. betty: does jeb bush get it? >> i think he does. if you were john ellis come everyone would say he should be the president of the united states. kerry's advice. his dad, his brother. betty: don't you think that is getting better? >> i think jeb bush is the one candidate who has the understanding encouraged to do the right thing. i am confident he could do it. i want you to understand, this is wide open as a process and it should be. i want every candidate, included on thencluding ones
democratic side, to answer the question, what will you do about the economy so generations from now, we will be able to say we solve the problem. betty cohen as well prepared as jeb bush appears to be, were you surprised he fumbled the question on iraq? >> i think he did not hear the right question when he answered it. i think he were answering, if he were in the position his brother was in knowing what his brother knew, he would have done it. i do not think he understood the question was, was you do it knowing what you know now that is a very different thing. is a minor blip. i think the greater question should be asked on the other side of the aisle because kerry clinton does not have to answer any questions right now because no one is challenging her yard betty: he must've known this is a question that would be asked of him, so why was he not better prepared? politelieve he was being to the questioner and probably
did i hear the full question. trying to for things in context now. i have great confidence jeb bush knows how to lead the ride witnessed his leadership as the governor of florida and i know the character he has. do not misread me. anyone who wants to be president can come to franklin pierce university new hampshire. the first primary is in new hampshire. i think they can pass the test in that state if they understand the peterson foundation is telling omission look at it. betty: thank you so much for joining me this morning. the former chief of staff to george w. bush. i will headed back to you guys. olivia: thank you so much, betty liu. we will have more from the peterson summit all day long, including better -- betty's interview at 12, with a congressman. up, our banking
olivia: a-ok with big pay packages being given to bankers these days. voting today to approve pay packages for their ceo's is. pimm: critics insist top executives are overpaid. a look at how the pay packages are compared to chief executives of other industries. classroom median pay at big banks has grown from $3 million to $11 million. jamie dimon has been ahead of jpmorgan from us a decade and last year, he brought home .1 $.5 million. his contemporaries at morgan
stanley, 24.2 million and most of that was in stock options. if you were to look at the pay index, the highest-paid in the sector were not from the big banks. of executive chairman fidelity national, 104.9 million. mario, 88.5 million. , $85.9 schwarzman million. of the 100 highest-paid executive last year, only two dozen of them were bankers and both of them worked at the same firm. lloyd blankfein brought in $31.8 million, and between $9.69. who topped the list last year? 285.3 million dollars. something you have to keep in mind, he was paid a lot in equity. number two is the head of liberty global, the big table company. he pulled in $139.9 million.
media compensation tends to be very high. made $50.8 million. most executives stand to make a lot of money when they step down from a company. got a severance package worth $417 million, which today would be worth well north of $500 million. in context, it is not as it appears to be. everyone thinks bankers are overpaid. not so. all right. thank you. i will see you tomorrow. still ahead -- ♪
the markets are closing in europe. what go to caroline hyde in london. caroline. caroline: bit of handwringing going on at the ecb because it looks as though comments coming an executive board member seems to have driven the appetite for the bond market. exclusive dinner at the hedge fund managers attending. many people are worried about how messages are put across but certainly, the comments coming bird money going into the debt market. for spainming down and greece. member deford ever after the $400 billion selloff in the bond markets in the past few weeks, appetite is suddenly coming back because the ecb is saying we will up our urges his of bonds up until the wall in the summer may be may and june, you will see more than 60
billion euros being smashed up every single month. suddenly, we see appetite back in the bond market. also appetite seemingly being dwindled. let's check in on the euro first spear we saw big news currently up by half a percent. appetite because construction. the housing starts data. your -- the euro tracked lower and the british pound inflation going negative for the first time since 1960. down goes the pound against nearly every single -- on the upside, check this out. than 2% andmore even greece. for the moment, there are still concerns about no deal yet done in the debt debacle. back to you guys. pimm: thank you, caroline hyde in london. now let's look at the top
stories at this hour. we have not seen home construction like this since the end of 2007. level ino the highest more than seven years, the increase of 20% was the biggest in 24 years. housing is being revolved -- revived by a stronger job market and mortgage rates to a near record low. a retailer being hurt by the strong u.s. dollar. walmart posted analyst estimates. the company is dealing with the broader's -- broader shift of how to spend the money. facebook may have found a way to make money with what's at, the messaging service it purges for 22 billion dollars. facebook says it may allow businesses to market to whatsapp,through which has become popular as an alternative to traditional messaging. it now has a bout 1800 million users.
the maker of the blockbuster videogame grand theft auto is rising the most in more than four years. shares were up as much as 15% and quarterly earnings were better than expected thanks to the sales of grand theft and other titles, called the vault. those are your top stories of the morning. winnerup, nobel prize not mincing words. more from that exclusive interview. and bacon is having its moments. it has always been popular but thanks to low prices and the paleo diet, it is everywhere. they can milkshakes, bacon kale salad, bacon martinis. all right. plus in the next hour, we will hear from the house minority whip speaking to bloomberg's betty liu on finding common ground in a divided washington. ivy league universities may be the leaders in education but no
longer the leaders in endowment investing. bloomberg crunched the numbers and according to our new exclusive ranking of the performance, two schools in the midwest topped the list. adele college and the university of .4nesota have returned up 20 percent. around it out the top three. harvard's endowment, the biggest in the world, returned 15.4%. some of that is because of big numbers, it is difficult to make big returns when you get to be that big. joining us is lauren and scott, the chief officer at the university. his endowment return nearly 20% last year. explaining's ackley the data is -- exactly how the data is compiled. >> there are 100 universities in our center, nearly over $1 billion. it is clear you have overall
winners like yell, historically at the top and notre dame is as well. you have other universities, small liberal arts schools joining their ranks in terms of achieving high investment returns. pimm: i wonder if you could describe some of the criteria that would make it possible for the smaller schools to outperform harvard. scott: there is no reason why a smaller school could not do well . it requires some of the same things all of us require, having alignment between your board and investment team on what the objectives are and having the right organization, having right access to top managers. it is just not often that some of the smallest schools will commit to it but there is no reason why they cannot and many have and it is wonderful to see. you canam wondering if tell us based on your experience at notre dame, what are some of the rules and regulations that
may guide your investment philosophy? scott: we are long-term investors. many large endowments really believe that you we really are long-term investors. i have a great team and a great board. we have had real alignment and our sense of purpose and mission for doing the endowment. access to the top investment partners all over the world. we affect consistency in our team as well. six of my eight directors have been with me on 20 years and that is very unusual. approach hascy and been an advantage for us. pimm: can you comment on the kinds of investments the universities are making? we hear many universities invest in private equity. how does that influence returns? >> i think it else returns. it seems the numbers are showing that the largest percentage you
have, the better you get in the last few years. it is pretty high. the universities that did not necessarily fair as well or slower to invest in alternatives, slower to invest in silicon valley. it is clear the ones that did not do so well. what can you pick up on lauren was saying about using alternative investments as an additional asset classes mark -- asset classes -- asset class? scott: there is an advantage getting some of these structures. some of the areas like venture capital, cottage industries 20 or 30 years ago, very institutionalize with money flowing in. you have to have a team that can players, thetop most skilled managers.
not everybody has that. some of the large endowment funds have been able to build those teams overtime. that has been a real advantage. it is actually picking the right ones that will add value over time. tell us the size of the notre dame endowment right now and give us an example of specific investments that have returned handsomely? scott: we have done well in private equity and venture capital is part of it. i think our venture portfolios for 30 years is over 30% in private equity total is 26 or 27. we have also done well on emerging markets and we have fabulous partners. last year the index was down but we were up 22% in our composite. there is an opportunity to have superior returns. made to there an effort
compare how one university does to another? people look at each other and therefore want to do better as a result? lauren: most universities do not like to make the direct comparison. in a sense that they have different goals and are serving different purposes. some universities are reliant on their and dominance number less so so they can take on more risk. they will cost only tell you and what i think is evident, it is different goals and different benchmarks. they want to surpass benchmarks but not necessarily compete with other endowments in terms of returns. scott: i agree very much. over the long-term, you feel iq want to be in the top group of performers among the institutional universe but day today and quarter to quarter, we are not aching about it at all. pimm: i want to thank you both very much and i want to thank
considered under fast track authority. that would force congress to vote yes or no on a trade deal without being able to amend it. we will have an exclusive interview with senator warren right here on bloomberg tv. the united states has charged six chinese citizens with stealing sensitive mobile phone tohnology and giving it their government. one of the suspects was arrested saturday after a flight from china. kfc is trying to update its image by bringing back its white suited and bearded founder, colonel sanders. the kernel has been dead for more than three decades so kfc's having someone else portray him in ads on television and social media. bouncing on the greek prime minister to make a deal. there has lately been a lot of
talk on how this could be contained and not have too many ripple effects across the global economy. the nobel prize-winning economist is not so sure. he spoke this morning with bloomberg's francine lacqua. >> the program put forward in 2010, and revised subsequently twice. it was a disaster. as an economist and i sought recently, i said, this will not work to what is remarkable is the ecb, the european commission keeps coming out with forecasts. their models are really bad. i tease my students and i say, that, ever came out with you get a zero. francine: how do you fix it? >> they do not understand macroeconomics paired when you have austerity combined with a
weakening in the financial sector, this is a fundamental structural problem with the eu. they have the single market and money in these have a problem or do you get public austerity, and it is a toxic combination. that builtt have into models. the same problem they had in failing to forecast the 2008 prices. they did not learn. >> should greece be the euro zone? it would make more sense. take the pain, a lot of it, but then they are in charge. >> if germany refuses to change the program, i think there is no alternative. the first best would be for europe to realize austerity is a and there are fundamental laws in the structure of the eurozone. late.ne: we are too they need money and they needed
in the next couple of weeks to understand what you're saying, but we just do not have the time for that. if you were greece, would you meet under these conditions? >> under the conditions that the eurozone refuses to change a policy that has led the company 20 5% decline in gdp, this is depression. 50% -- this is destroying the country. i think i would have to lean and say yes, you know, you bargain in good faith -- good faith. you did an awful lie, and they will not face up to realities. francine: what happens when greece leaves? clubs it is very serious for europe. greece is small, but what it is saying is, this contract, this
union, it is a temporary union. the next time spain has a little problem, and they have a different government, they will say well, european leaders do not bargain in good faith. they do not face the reality that the policies are not working, and they are pushing these countries out. that means interest rates will soar. you are really bringing more instability into europe, a real risk that the whole european project, not the eu, but the euro project, block from the start, could be repaired, it is going down the tubes. joseph there with our own francine lacqua. still ahead, bacon and the pork product is a must-have edition two around the country. it is not just because of the taste.
and in whatever. that is the trend we are overall singh and restaurants. we have things like bacon milkshakes. bacone things like sauerkraut, a bacon kale salad. makes sense. martinis. bacon peanut brittle's. 68% of u.s. restaurants have bacon on the menu. that is according to data essential. of reasons. you say ok, lower costs. creativity, so they can do new and cool things with it. diet that is really hot where you eat meat all the time, and younger people want to try cool things and they are interested in that. a story abouts how with the given burgers, they're adding bacon because it is what the customer wants. have totally done that.
it little bacon, a little veggie, and i am a happy person. called fatestaurant burger, and this is called a hypocrite berger to get the veggie burger with the bacon. thisnteresting part about is the retail prices are down, but we are not paying less at restaurants and that spread is the most we have ever seen. we have had a lot of fatty bacon in inventories leading through that. that was more expensive bacon. is good for retailers because we are still paying more and not seen the price benefit. pimm: maybe the pork belly gap. alix: happy lunch, everybody. pimm: thank you. i want to go now to julie hyman in the newsroom for a look at the markets.
bacon to the markets. record highs. let's take a look at what is going on in major averages right now. if there are any gains in the s&p in the dow, it will mean records for the averages. also touching an intraday high for the dow as well. are not quitewe there for the s&p 500 at that point on a intraday basis paired joining me for today's's options insight is the chief investment officer at recon capital partners. kevin, we keep pushing up to the records day after day after day. for the snp and the doubt. is energy earnings are weighing on earnings throughout the year already baked in. at every other company primarily report. the next catalyst will be the next earnings season. we are seeing the action overseas, so we focus on the boone, the ecb quantitative easing.
andis really compressed that is similar to last year. if you look last year, we had around the same level, 12.5 and that is where we are now. june is typically a great month for stocks. everybody some -- freaks out. june tends to bring some of the best returns. the sera looking at the s&p to continue to improve higher. looking at a june 19 call for $26, and level 2130 is what you're looking for. kevin: correct. what you are paying is 1.2% for the call to go up into june. you cannot say take where it is at right now, 12.6, divided by 10, and that is your at the money premiums we will receive or payout. that is a good way to look at it. going into june, if the fed does not have the liftoff situation, this trade will participate and it is not costing you a whole
lot. we said earlier, june is a great month. if there is not a liftoff, you can equally participate and it does not cost you a whole lot. >> as you mentioned, the fed is the wildcard here. next meeting is june 17. isn't the risk, and that is not to say you have to hold this until expiration, but isn't the fed saysthat something at the meeting to spook the market, and then you go down below 2130 and you lose out? kevin: you are hitting the nail on the head. that is exactly why you only want to spend 1.2%. it is very cheap here it is a great way to get participation. equitynection move your exposure right now, go to cash, sit and wait and see what the fed actually does. and if they are telegraphing. the fed has said statements recently about not wanting to immediately raise rates. we know the facts, we know the job market has been great.
there is actually inflation, asset inflation has been out there, so they will have to make a move. data. housing >> exactly. the dollar has been stabilizing as well. the fed will have to do something and they will not want to do it during the holidays. lookingr is what it is at. 2016's own election-year p are the fed does not want to be caught in a political situation. we think they will hold off and try to see with the numbers are doing and then leadoff into september. >> taking that bet for june. thank you so much. kevin with us talking options. stay with us. there will be much more after this short rake. -- break. ♪
estimates as u.s. sales grew more slowly than it projected. betty liu is at the fiscal summit in washington dc where she will be speaking with the house minority leader. to have makers expected their best year since 2011 as demand soars for clean power p or we'll tight which companies may benefit the most. ♪ pimm: good afternoon. alix: i'm in for betty liu today. we are looking at weakness overall in stocks. due to thet is stronger dollar but you also wound up having the better housing number